| The
10 Commandments of Sports Betting
The difference between wagering on, say, baseball, which
utilizes a run line, and football, which employs a pointspread,
is as different as the shapes and sizes of the balls used
in those two games. That being said, there are a number of
handicapping and betting principles that apply to all sports
wagering. At the risk of being irreverent, let's call them
the 10 Commandments of Wagering:
1-THOU SHALT NOT BET MORE THAN THY CAN AFFORD TO
LOSE Like any book, Olympic Sports wants you to bet.
But only bankruptcy attorneys and psychiatrists benefit when
a player goes bust. You're no good to yourself or us if you
lose everything. Gambling can be an enjoyable pastime, if
you wager responsibly.
2-THOU SHALT RESPECT THE LINE Bad oddsmakers
don't last very long so the ones that are still around must
be very proficient. A good spread should give you pause, make
you wonder whether to lay or take the points. If something
looks to good to be true, look again. The oddsmaker isn't
a fool; but maybe you are.
3-HONOR THY BANKROLL Learn to manage your
money. This means not stepping out on a game just because
it's on television. Don't try to "get even" on the
last game of the day. Be mature enough to realize that you're
going to lose some days and win others. You can't make every
day a winner but you can make every day a loser.
4-THOU SHALT NOT OVEREMPHASIZE TECHNICAL TRENDS
A team that has covered 10 straight times against an opponent
is no more or less likely to cover in Game No. 11 than it
is for "tails" to come up in a coin toss after 10
consecutive "heads." History can add perspective
but it's an imprecise indicator of what will happen in the
future. Many so-called "trends" merely are the result
of "backfitting," the manufacture of a theory to
validate a set of numbers, rather than developing a theory
and seeing whether the statistical data supports it.
5-THOU SHALT NOT ASSIGN TOO MUCH IMPORTANCE TO PSYCHOLOGICAL
FACTORS Odds are, if one team is up for a game, so
is its opponent. Besides, an excess of adrenaline is not always
helpful, especially in sports where finesse plays as big a
role as brute force. Since an athlete only can give everything
he has, a "110% effort" is impossible. So is "taking
it to another level." If athletes or teams could play
better just by trying harder, wouldn't they do that all the
time? Talent, cohesiveness (team play) and coaching still
are the most important factors in winning.
6-THOU SHALT NOT LAST GAME HANDICAP No team
is as good as it looks after a victory nor as woeful as it
seems after a defeat. While recent form is important, the
spectrum needs to be widened to evaluate each team as a whole.
In fact, the week after a football team is embarrassed, it's
not only likely to practice harder, but also to encounter
an overconfident opponent. On the other cleat, a team that
wins in a blowout may develop a false sense of worth. Remember,
the Super Bowl champion New England Patriots lost their season
opener to the Buffalo Bills by a 30-0 score last year, a result
that was anything but a harbinger of things to come that season.
7-THOU SHALT UNDERSTAND THE IMPORTANCE OF INJURIES
A good general rule is this: The more starters on a team,
the less important an injury. Thus, football, with it nearly
30 regulars (don't forget kickers, punters, kick returners,
punt returners, long snappers, holders and other special team
personnel in addition to the 22 offensive and defensive starters)
is least affected by an injury, although one to a quarterback
can be significant. Hockey, where perhaps a dozen players
see significant time, comes next in line, followed by baseball.
Since only five players start and most teams rarely offer
significant playing time to more than eight, basketball is
the sport most impacted by injury.
8-THOU SHALT LEARN THE SIGNIFIGANCE OF THE HOME FIELD/COURT
Like Commandment VII, this varies from sport to sport. For
example, a key ingredient in the NBA is not the home court,
per se, but the travel associated with getting to that court.
The home field can be a telling advantage in the NFL when
weather is a factor. In hockey, the home team coach gets to
make the last line change, creating the player personnel matchups
he desires. The home field is less of an advantage in baseball
where good pitching conquers everything.
9-THOU SHALT WORSHIP AT THE SHRINE OF DEFENSE
Offense is flashier but the teams that played good defense
(Patriots, Marlins, Spurs and Devils) all won championships
last year. There will be exceptions, of course, but over the
long haul, defense prevails.
10-THOU SHALT BE GRACIOUS AND HUMBLE IN VICTORY It's
never a good idea to risk angering Lady Luck.
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