| MONEY
MANAGEMENT ESSENTIALS
In many respects, money management in sports handicapping
is just as important as being able to pick winners. That's
because if you have poor money management, you can put yourself
in the terrible position of picking more winners than losers
and still losing money!
That should be unacceptable to you. In fact, you should endeavor
to do exactly the opposite with your money management practices.
Here are some essential money management reminders.
FIRST AND FOREMOST, NEVER BET MORE MONEY THAN YOU CAN AFFORD
TO LOSE.
Remember, this is gambling. You don't have total control of
the situation. Even if your analysis is right on, you can
still lose a football bet because of weather, injuries, a
fluke play, over-excited players, or a bad call. If losses
are forcing you to change your lifestyle or are negatively
affecting your personal life, you should back off.
ESTABLISH A SPECIFIC SPORTSBETTING BANKROLL. This should
be money that is not essential for anything else, especially
for food, rent, mortgage payments, taxes, or the welfare of
your family. If you lose all of those funds, you should consider
your sportsbetting "on hold" until you have enough
money to establish a new specific sportsbetting bankroll.
DECIDE HOW MUCH "ONE UNIT" WILL BE FOR YOU. For
most people, a unit size of 3 to 4 percent of your total bankroll
is about right. For some people, that's $30 or $40. Some,
$300 or $400. Others, $3,000 or $4,000. Calculate the size
of one unit based on your sportsbetting bankroll. Apply one
unit on each well-handicapped play; 1½ on one or two
top plays per week; 2 units on your best-of-the-best plays
of the season.
TRY TO EMPLOY A PERCENTAGE-OF-BANKROLL METHOD. That is, if
your bankroll declines significantly, you can stick with the
same 3 to 4 percent of it for one unit, but the actual amount
of the unit will be smaller because the size of your bankroll
is smaller. If you use this predetermined simple percentage-of-bankroll
approach, it will be easier to keep your ego and emotions
out of your wagering and to "stay in the game."
(You might also want to consult the "Kelly Criterion"
articles that can be found in the "Handicapper's Corner"
section of www.goldsheet.com.)
DON'T GET BLOWN OUT EARLY IN THE SEASON. It's a long season.
You're going to learn a lot about teams in the first two or
three weeks. Try to restrain your enthusiasm early, and save
a good portion of your speculative bankroll for later when
you know more about the teams and when the games become more
formful. If you find yourself playing too many early games,
cut the amount you bet on each game.
AVOID IMPULSE BETTING. It's tough enough to beat the oddsmaker
even when you have thorough knowledge of the teams and of
all the factors at work in a football game. So it's very unlikely
you're going to be successful over the course of the season
if you bet on games merely because you suddenly get a good
"feeling" about them. If you want to win, you can't
guess at games. You should have good, solid reasons before
making a play.
DON'T PLUNGE. Generally speaking, if you bet more than twice
as much on any one game, you could be asking for trouble,
because if you lose just a couple of those plays, you'll have
a hard time achieving a profitable season even if you have
a winning handicapping percentage! That thought should be
anathema to you.
DON'T CHASE YOUR MONEY. This is probably the worst money-management
mistake of all! Always go with well-handicapped, high-percentage
plays. It's inevitable that some of them won't work out. But
if you think you're going to immediately get your money back
that night or the next day by making lots of low-percentage
wagers to make up for a few bad beats in high-percentage situations,
you're most likely going to be severely disappointed.
DON'T BET ON TOO MANY GAMES. It is true in sportsbetting
that "a play is a play is a play." Inevitably there
are some weeks in the football season that offer more high-percentage
plays than other weeks. If there appear to you to be more
good plays than usual some week, it's usually best to decide
on the total portion of your bankroll you intend to risk that
week (usually no more than 35-40 percent) and then divide
that money into smaller-than-normal units, thus wagering the
same total amount over the greater number of games.
DON'T BET ON "BAD NUMBERS." It's difficult enough
to win when the pointspreads are "fair." Most sportsbooks
these days tend to move their pointspreads faster and farther
than ever. If you consistently lay 5½ points when the
"real" spread should be 3½, or 8 points when
the "real" spread is 6½, or if you take only
2 points on an underdog when the consensus line an hour ago
was +3½, it is going to be very difficult for you to
come out ahead in the long run. It is usually best to anticipate
the line moves caused by the "public" and act accordingly.
Try to avoid those just-before-the-game impulse wagers.
BE CAREFUL WITH EXOTIC WAGERS. For most professionals, there's
nothing like making a single, solid wager on a happening,
hard-trying team at good pointspread value. Make enough of
those bets and you'll usually have a nice, winning season.
However, sportsbooks LOVE their customers to make lots and
lots of exotic wagers--parlays, teasers, half-times, propositions,
TV games--the more the merrier. Why? Because sportsbooks know
there's a greater chance for the public to screw up its high-percentage
wagers by tying them to lots of guesses and low-percentage
plays. Because that's what sportsbooks WANT you to do is why
you SHOULDN'T do it.
DON'T BET ON GAMES JUST BECAUSE THEY'RE ON TV. Betting a
game merely because it's on TV is one of the worst criteria
for making a wager. The bookies want you to bet all the TV
games, especially if you're just guessing, especially if you're
trying to "get out" for the week, especially if
you've had a few cocktails. If you're going to bet on such
games just because they're televised--and it's somewhat understandable
if you are, given the number of high-profile TV games these
days--you should do so at a "recreational" wagering
level about 25 or 30 percent of one unit.
CONSIDER BETTING A LITTLE BIT MORE WHEN YOU'RE WINNING CONSISTENTLY.
Try to maximize the value of a winning season by gradually
increasing the size of the unit you're wagering as your bankroll
increases. Remember, the amount of money you win is more important
than your winning percentage.
BEWARE OF EXOGENOUS VARIABLES. Exogenous variables are things
outside of sportsbetting that might effect your success. If
you're extremely tired, or under an abnormal amount of stress,
or having marital problems, or ill, or drunk, or greatly out
of your normal handicapping routine for any other reason,
your concentration, logic and discipline are quite likely
to be affected. Either limit your wagers or avoid them entirely
until circumstances return to normal.
LASTLY, IF THINGS AREN'T GOING YOUR WAY, BACK OFF! If you're
in a losing rhythm, or absorbing an inordinate number of bad
beats, reduce the number of your wagers or cut the size of
your wagers, or both. Don't be stubborn about it. Sportsbetting,
like life, is a mind game. Pressing only makes things worse.
Take a week off. Take two weeks. Regain your perspective.
Some seasons will be better for your handicapping style than
others.
For more info, email us at PirateSportsPicks@gmail.com or call us at 1-800-275-9808. |